AVI Biopharma

Company:	AVI Biopharma
Web Site:	http://www.antivirals.com
Purchase Price:	$1.16
Current Price:	Click Here

AVI Biopharma has been on my watch list for several months, since their acquisition of Ercole Biotech earlier this year. The company has been increasing its revenues, but like so many other small fish that try to absorb another small fish, the expenses it took on in the acquisition have weighed down its balance sheet with debt.

In recent months, the company has been refocusing its portfolio of projects with an eye toward routing resources to the most promising research and have brought aboard industry heavyweight J. David Boyle as their CFO. I have the sense that this transfusion could bring life back to the company, whose stock has been on a slow and steady decline thus far.

Ivanhoe Energy (IVAN)

Company:	Ivanhoe Energy, Inc.
Web Site:	http://www.ivanhoe-energy.com
Purchase Price:	$2.31
Current Price:	Click Here

I've had my eye on Ivanhoe Energy for a couple of months now - ever since the company acquired three leases in the Athabasca oil sands region in Alberta. While I've been watching several companies through the spring, I've been reluctant to get back into the oil business since taking a loss on Pilgrim ... but there's just too much potential in this player, and the major players are beginning to take notice - so I figure now is the time to strike.

Weekly Summary

After taking a tumble last week, my portfolio has recovered nicely, and the value the highest it's been all year:



There are a couple of sick dogs in the pound, which is to be expected, and some of them just won't get up and run - but those that have taken off have largely carried the rest.

Run Away!

A week after buying into eTrade on news that they were liquidating an underperforming unit to address their solvency issues, I've dumped my shares on news that the company reported a significant loss, and issued a press release stating that "the current economic environment may impede our expectations to return to profitability from continuing operations this year."

I got out early, and preserved some of the gains I had made before the feeding frenzy began:


A 46.2% gain is probably nothing to be too upset about - but it is a 9% drop from yesterday's closing price, and I expect it will slide deeper as the day wears on.

This is the second time I've played eTrade this year. I bought in at $2.99 in January, then sold out at $4.21 in March when the company seemed resolved to let its subprime portfolio drag it down the tubes.

I tend to doubt I'll go back for a third helping ... but then, you never know.

Weekly Summary

This week, I'm back in the black by an appreciable margin, largely due to my recent investment in eTrade and the continued progress of Krispy Kreme:



While the beleaguered big-board stocks have been making sufficient gains, my "true" penny stocks are continuing to flounder, with Miva dancing at the edge of my tolerance for bad performance - but in the end, my losses and gains have largely balanced one another out, and I've yet to stumble across a multi-bagger this year.

Revlon Swings to Profit

Revlon has announced a small profit for second quarter 2008, defying analysts predictions for a loss, and reports that sales are continuing to grow:

According to preliminary estimates, profit in the three months ended June 30 totaled $20 million, or 4 cents per share, compared with a loss of $11.3 million, or a loss of 2 cents per share in the same period last year. Net sales in second quarter rose by 8 percent to $375 million compared with $349.2 million last year.

The stock has gained some ground as a result - or more aptly, it has regained some ground that it has lost so far this year. I'm still in the red on this one, but if they can continue to grow, slow and steady, my sense is that buying into REV is a move I won't regret.

Insider Investment at Rite Aid

A week after trimming back its outlook for the current fiscal year, Rite Aid insiders are loading up on cheap shares:

[CEO] Mary Sammons and fellow board members Robert Miller and George Golleher purchased 1.48 million shares in open-market transactions this week. The price: $1 a share. Sammons bought 486,750 shares, while Miller and Golleher bought 500,000 shares a piece.

This is a significant vote of confidence by people who are "in the know" about this company's long-term potential. While I think it's going to take longer than I had hoped to turn a profit on this investment, I still expect I'll end up well in the black.

E-Trade (Again)

Company:	E*Trade Financial Corporation
Web Site:	http://www.etrade.com
Purchase Price:	$2.46
Current Price:	Click Here

E*Trade is one of the pioneers of online securities trading, who took a significant loss (five billion) in the subprime lending crisis, which sent its stock price plummeting from over $25/share to almost $2/share over the course of several months.

I played this stock earlier this year, and made a pretty good profit on it before it started to sink again and I cashed in my chips. Today, the company announced the sale of its Canadian subsidiary for almost half a billion dollars, which should go a long way to improving their debt ratio, and I expect that the shares will start moving up again, so I'm buying back in.

As before, I'll keep a close eye on things, but I expect to make another win.

Weekly Summary

The market in general has been in chaos this week, and my own holdings are down. On the bright side, I'm still in the black ... by about a buck:


I'm still trying to dump my shares in GoIP Global, but there simply isn't sufficient value to unload them at any price - my sense is it won't be long before the stock price won't cover the commission to unload them, and I'll end up taking a total loss.

Rite Aid cuts fiscal 2009 outlook

Sometimes, my timing really sucks ...

Drugstore operator Rite Aid Corp. on Wednesday reduced its guidance for fiscal 2009 because of refinancing costs. The Camp Hill, Pa.-based company said it now expects net loss between 39 cents and 52 cents per share, compared with previous guidance for a loss of 34 cents to 48 cents per share.

While I still expect that the firm will eventually dig its way out of debt, its shares are sure to plummet in the short run, and since the price is getting close to the $1 mark, they may either have to reverse-split (which is never a good thing) or face the prospect of being delisted (ditto).

So long, SOYO

SOYO Electronics has dropped to the point of no return, so I've cashed out to salvage what value is left:


I held out hope that this former microchip manufacturer could segue into the consumer electronics industry, but they've not been very successful - by all accounts, their products have been good, but they don't know how to define their niche, establish a market for themselves, or compete against more established firms ... and they don't seem to be learning from their mistakes.

And so, it's time for me to bail. I'll keep an eye on the press releases to see if they bring in some talent to help them make the transition - but for now, I'm no longer willing to fund their clumsy efforts.

Weekly Summary

Another week has gone by, and the ups and downs in my holdings have once again balanced out:


SOYO has puts its toes across the point of no return (a 50% loss) and I will be looking to unload it and cut my losses unless there's some significant development in the next few days; GOIG has been there for a while, but it's so thinly traded that it's impossible to unload my shares at any price.

On the brighter side of things, I'm beginning to consider when to take profit from KKD, which has shot upward but seems to have reached a new plateau, and FEEC, which I already cashed out my original investment, and whose star also seems to be fading in recent weeks.

Video Rental Follies

It's ben a busy week in the video rental industry ...

Last week, I bought into Blockbuster video, after the press got wind of Netflix's unilateral decision to dump "profiles," one of the few features that gave the firm competitive advantage in the industry and Movie Show Video, its main brick-and-mortar competitor, announced a desperate restructuring plan to stave off its creditors.

While Movie Show is still speeding downhill, Netflix came to its senses earlier this week and announced that it would keep the "profiles" feature (and retain the customers who were threatening to jump ship) - and since Blockbuster failed to act on this opportunity, the window for them to regain some ground in the online market has closed ... at least until the next time Netflix takes aim at its own foot.

However, there's still some potential for profit, asn Blockbuster announced today that it has reconsidered its plan to buy electronics retailer Circuit City Stores, which many analysts saw as a marriage of two struggling firms that would produce little fruit, and the stock snapped back upward by five percent (Meanwhile, CC shares plummeted to a seven-year low).

I expect the stock will continue to recover as the news spreads, and I will probably cash out sooner than expected, with a smaller gain than I had hoped, unless they can build on this momentum by announcing alternative plans.